2026 Rate Changes - Illinois: +23.4% avg; unknown amount due specifically to IRA subsidy expiration (preliminary)

via the Illinois Dept. of Insurance:

Affordable Care Act (ACA) - Illinois Rate Filings

The chart below contains proposed rates for Plan Year 2026, which will be reviewed for compliance with federal and state requirements.

Please submit any comments on the initially proposed Plan Year 2026 rates to DOI.HealthRateReview@illinois.gov by July 11, 2025.

The good news is, the Illinois Insurance Dept. now provides a handy, simple table with the actual average rate changes as well as direct links to the actuarial memos & other filing forms for every carrier, which made it easy for me to plug in the effectuated enrollment & calculate the weighted average rate hikes for every carrier in both the individual and small group markets.

The bad news is, the actuarial memos themselves are heavily redacted, meaning I'm unable to see how much of the rate hikes are due to the IRA subsidies expiring, CSR payments being reinstated or Trump's tariffs.

In any event, the weighted average hike being requested is a painful 23.4% on the individual market and a less-painful (but still ugly) 13.2% for small group plan enrollees.

It's also worth noting that Aetna and Health Alliance Medical Plans are dropping out of both markets, and it looks like Quartz Health is as well (though I haven't confirmed that one yet).

The individual market for the remaining carriers only adds up to around 395,000 enrollees even though over 465,000 enrolled on-exchange only in Illinois; I'm assuming the balance (plus some off-exchange enrollees) can be found in Aetna, HAMP & Quartz, which don't have any filings since they're pulling out anyway.