Originally posted 8/07/25

Overall preliminary rate changes via SERFF database, state insurance dept. website and/or the federal Rate Review database.

Aetna Life Insurance Co:

(Aetna/CVS is dropping out of the individual market in all states; I estimate they have around 35,000 enrollees in Kansas who will have to find a different carrier for 2026)

Blue Cross Blue Shield of Kansas City:

Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Kansas City (BCBSKC) is requesting an average rate change of -6.1% for 2025 individual rates as compared to 2023 individual rates and calculated by the URRT. The changes vary by plan, with a minimum rate change of -10.8% and a maximum rate increase of 1.8%.

Originally posted 8/11/25

Overall preliminary rate changes via the SERFF database, Alaska Insurance Dept. and/or the federal Rate Review database.

Moda Assurance Co:

(Moda has heavily redacted their actuarial memo and isn't providing the number of current enrollees)

The average rate change is X.XX% as shown on Worksheet 2 of the URRT. The proposed rate Proposed Rate Increase change varies by product and plan, and the proposed rates vary by plan, age, geographic area, and tobacco use. The average rate change was calculated by comparing the weighted average premium for members on current plans and rates to the weighted average premium for members on renewal plans and rates.

A summary of the major components and their contribution to the rate change is provided in the table below.

Components of the rate change / % Impact

Originally posted 8/08/25

Overall preliminary rate changes via SERFF database, Mississippi Insurance Dept. website and/or the federal Rate Review database.

Ambetter of Magnolia Inc.

The proposed rate change of 39.0% applies to approximately 142,324 individuals. Ambetter of Magnolia Inc.’s projected administrative expenses for 2026 are $89.76 PMPM. Administrative expense does not include $34.22 for taxes and fees. The historical administrative expenses for 2025 were $73.84 PMPM, which excludes taxes and fees. The projected loss ratio is 84.4% which satisfies the federal minimum loss ratio requirement of 80.0%.

Blue Cross Blue Shield of MS:

The 2026 monthly health insurance premium is made up of four pieces: estimated claim costs, administrative costs, taxes and fees, and risk/profit margin.

via Covered California:

SACRAMENTO, Calif. — Covered California is kicking off its open-enrollment period for 2026 coverage on Nov. 1 amid uncertainty surrounding the enhanced premium tax credits that have delivered greater affordability and record enrollment across the nation.

This marks the 13th open-enrollment period under the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, which since its inception has helped tens of millions of Americans access health insurance, including a record nearly 2 million Californians heading into 2026. Today, more than 24 million Americans are insured through a marketplace plan.

via Access Health CT:

HARTFORD, Conn. (Oct. 30, 2025) — Access Health CT (AHCT), Connecticut’s official health insurance marketplace, today announced it will hold several enrollment fairs in November to help Connecticut residents shop, compare and enroll in health or dental coverage. They can also renew their coverage. Enrollment fairs are one-day events for customers to get in-person help from experts. The fairs will take place in Danbury, Manchester, Norwalk, Norwich, New London, Stratford and Willimantic. All help is free. 

Open Enrollment begins Nov. 1, 2025 and ends Jan. 15, 2026.

When you enroll affects when your coverage starts. If customers enroll on or before Dec. 15, 2025, coverage will start Jan. 1, 2026. If they enroll between Dec. 16, 2025 and Jan. 15, 2026, coverage will begin Feb. 1, 2026. 

via Connect for Health Colorado:

Denver, Colo.– Health insurance premiums will increase for many people who buy health insurance through Colorado’s official marketplace and fewer customers in 2026 will qualify for financial help to offset those costs, according to a new analysis from Connect for Health Colorado, the state’s official health insurance marketplace. Most of the cost increase is the result of Congress allowing federal enhanced Premium Tax Credits (ePTCs) to expire.

Connect for Health Colorado’s analysis is based on the Colorado Division of Insurance’s announcement of final health insurance premium rates for plan year 2026, and reflects the expiration of ePTCs and the benefit of the introduction of Colorado Premium Assistance, which will reduce premiums for some customers.

You may have seen this jaw-dropping nonsense yesterday, but if you didn't, here it is again:

Reporter: Unless ACA subsidies are extended, the average plan will increase by somewhere around 115%

(CMS Director) Dr. Oz: Where'd you get that number?

Reporter: The Kaiser Family Foundation

Dr. Oz: They retracted that. Here's the truth. The average American who's on ACA is gonna pay $13 more than this year. That's not a big issue.

(sigh) where to begin...

On Monday I noted that around 20 state-based ACA exchange websites had launched 2026 Open Enrollment "window shopping," which allows residents to plug in their household information (zip code, ages, income, etc) and browse the various health insurance policies they have to choose from for coverage starting January 1st...as well as whatever federal (and state, in some cases) tax credits they'll be eligible for.

This morning, the number of states with live window shopping (including DC) grew to 49, as HealthCare.Gov, which hosts ACA enrollment for 30 states, went live. (This leaves 2 states left to bring their window shopping tools online: Colorado and Pennsylvania, both of which should do so by Saturday at the latest).

Last month I posted an analysis of total enrollment in ACA health insurance exchange coverage nationally which broke the data out by Congressional District partisan lean as well as according to what percent of the vote Donald Trump received a year ago.

My conclusion? Around 20% more QHP/BHP enrollees live in House districts won by Republicans than those won by Democrats last fall…but there’s still an awful lot of blue district residents who are getting hit hard.

Over 26 million Americans in BOTH red and blue districts & states are going to be screwed in the near future if the enhanced tax credits are allowed to expire & the PAPI change is kept in place, and millions of them will lose healthcare coverage completely.

Today, with Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits also about to be cut off to over 40 million Americans by Congressional Republicans, I decided to take a similar look at how that breaks out along partisan lines.

Originally posted 12/21/24

North Dakota has around ~43,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 91% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~16,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~59,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 55,000 statewide.

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