Last week I issued a warning that once the 2026 ACA Open Enrollment Period ends in a few weeks, the Trump Regime is likely to crow about total enrollment "only" dropping by perhaps a million people compared to a year ago (while also blaming all of that loss on "fraudulent enrollees" etc etc) even though enrollment will actually likely drop by several times as many over the next few months.
As I explained, the reason for this is that around half of the ~22 million enrollees as of last fall likely allowed themselves to be passively auto-renewed into the same plans, meaning that they'll be counted as having "selected" a plan for 2026 even if many of them immediately cancel it as soon as they see the shocking rate hikes. Others will stick it out for a few months before not being able to afford their coverage any longer & dropping out of the market altogether.
A few weeks ago I reported that Access Health CT, Connecticut's ACA exchange, was planning on joining several other states including California, Colorado, Maryland, New Jersey & New Mexico in offering supplemental subsidies to partially (or, in the case of New Mexico, fully) backfill the lost federal tax credits for ACA enrollees.
Using emergency authority granted him by the General Assembly in special session last month, the governor announced the commitment minutes after the U.S. Senate failed to advance either a Democratic proposal to extend the credits or a Republican alternative.
In other words, new enrollments are up 27% while active renewals are down about 10%; they pretty much cancel each other out compared to the same point last year.
The Maine Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) Office of the Health Insurance Marketplace (OHIM) will release biweekly updates on plan selections through CoverME.gov, Maine’s Health Insurance Marketplace.
Plan selections provide a snapshot of activity by new and returning consumers who have selected a plan for 2026. “Plan selections” become “enrollments” once consumers have paid their first monthly premium to begin coverage. These numbers are subject to change as consumers may modify or cancel plans after their initial selection.
The deadline to select a plan for coverage beginning January 1, 2026 is December 15, 2025. Consumers who select a plan between December 16, 2025 and January 15, 2026 will have coverage beginning February 1, 2026.
TRENTON — With a critical deadline approaching to enroll in 2026 health coverage through Get Covered New Jersey, Department of Banking and Insurance Commissioner Justin Zimmerman is encouraging residents in need of health insurance to enroll by December 31st for coverage that is effective on January 1st .
Open Enrollment at Get Covered New Jersey, the state’s Official Health Insurance Marketplace, runs from November 1, 2025, through January 31, 2026, but consumers must enroll in a plan by December 31, 2025, for coverage beginning January 1, 2026. Those who enroll by January 31, 2026, will have coverage beginning on February 1, 2026.
As I've noted before: While I include the passive/auto-renewal number for completeness sake, that number won't really be relevant until after the deadline for January 1st coverage passes (which isn't until New Year's Eve in California).
More important for the moment is the total number of active enrollments, which includes both new enrollees as well as current enrollees who log into their account and actively select a plan for 2026.
In California, those come to 617,316 combined.
As of the same point last year (actually 1 day more; the data from last year is as of 12/28), Covered CA was reporting:
Since we're past the initial December 15th Open Enrollment Deadline for coverage starting January 1st in most states and since there's been several enrollment deadline extensions announced by various states (including two more today), I figured this would be a good time to post a completely updated rundown of just what the remaining deadlines are for every state as well as what your options are if you miss them.
This is basically a standalone version of the first section of my annual Open Enrollment Guide; I hope that separating it out will make it less overwhelming.
IDAHO: December 15th was the only deadline for 2026 coverage. If you missed it, you're pretty much out of luck unless you qualify for one of the following exceptions:
Long ago in a galaxy far, far away, during the first batcrap insane 2014 Open Enrollment Period, a common refrain from Republicans looking to attack the newly-ramping up healthcare law was to demand "BUT HOW MANY HAVE PAID???"
The gist of the attack on the ACA was that after the worst of the ugly technical problems experienced by HealthCare.Gov and many of the state-based exchange websites were resolved, there was indeed a rush of backed-up demand to enroll in healthcare coverage by millions of people, but that just because a lot of people signed up for insurance coverage via the exchanges, that didn't necessarily mean they were actually enrolled in that policy.
The reason for this, of course, is that you have to actually pay your first monthly premium in order to have your enrollment "effectuated" (i.e., put into effect).
As I've noted before: While I include the passive/auto-renewal number for completeness sake, that number won't really be relevant until after the deadline for January 1st coverage passes (which was December 15th in most states, but not until 12/31 in CA, IL, MD, NV, NJ, NM, PA, RI & VA).
More important for the moment is the total number of active enrollments, which includes both new enrollees as well as current enrollees who log into their account and actively select a plan for 2026.
In California, those come to 584,131 combined. This also means that only 25% of current enrollees had actively re-enrolled as of 12/20.
As of the same point last year (actually 1 day more; the data from last year is as of 12/21), Covered CA was reporting:
Quick ACA Update: More than 15.6 million Americans have enrolled in a plan on the federally run exchanges so far — compared to roughly 16 million Americans last year.
Notably, this small drop follows several important CMS actions over the past year to combat fraudulent and improper enrollments, which have already removed more than enough people from premium subsidies who are covered elsewhere to account for the modest enrollment change. That said, there is a politically motivated lawsuit that has paused critical actions to make sure Biden-era improper enrollments are fully knocked out.
IMPORTANT NOTE: For those who need insurance and have not already signed up — go to HealthCare.Gov to see if you qualify and what types of plans you can get. Most Americans can access a plan for $21 a month!
